Sourdough looks like flour and water. In reality it is time, temperature, and bake loss. If you are not tracking yield, you are guessing at your margins.
Start Here: The Numbers to Check
- This guide is for U.S. sourdough bakeries, cottage bakers, and farmers market vendors pricing artisan loaves and wholesale cases.
- The first numbers to check are flour blend cost, dough yield, bake loss, failed loaves, labor minutes, bags or labels, and market returns.
- Start with
loaf cost = batch cost / sellable loaves, then add labor and packaging before usingprice floor = loaf cost / target food cost %. - The examples below price a country boule and show how bake loss changes the real cost per sellable loaf.
- Today, count sellable loaves from one bake and recost your base loaf before pricing inclusions.
Core Sourdough Cost Formula
Finished loaf cost = (Dough cost + Starter discard + Labor) / Finished loaf count
Bake loss % = (Dough weight - Finished weight) / Dough weightBake loss is the silent profit leak in artisan bread.
Yields You Must Track
- Dough weight per batch
- Finished loaf weight after cooling
- Starter discard per week
- Unsold loaves per day
A 6% bake loss on a 900 g loaf is real money across a week.
Example: Country Boule (Example Numbers)
- Flour and mix-ins: $1.10
- Starter and discard allocation: $0.20
- Salt and utilities: $0.15
- Labor allocation: $1.80
- Average bake loss: 7%
Finished loaf cost = $3.25 Target food cost 30% -> Menu price = $10.83 Round to $11 for clean shelf pricing.
Pricing Ladder That Works
- Mini loaf (450 g): price for labor, not just ingredient weight
- Standard boule (800-900 g): core margin driver
- Premium add-ins (seed, olive, cheese): separate price tier
Never price add-ins as a flat $1. They are too different in cost.
Local Data Check (US)
USDA ERS expects food-away-from-home prices to rise in 2026, which pressures bakery margins. Use BLS average price data for flour and dairy as a sanity check, then reprice quickly when suppliers move.
Do This Now
- Weigh your dough before baking and finished loaves after cooling
- Calculate your bake loss percentage (dough weight - finished weight) / dough weight
- Track your starter discard weekly and allocate it across loaves
- Calculate the cost of one finished loaf using your invoice prices
- Divide loaf cost by 0.30 to find your menu price at 30% food cost
- Set a reminder to reprice bread monthly as flour prices move
KitchenCost keeps your bread recipes updated so every loaf earns its margin.