Muffins look easy. Your margin says otherwise.
A tiny over-scoop of batter, expensive berries, and day-end waste can erase profit.
This guide shows the batch math for muffins in U.S. bakeries and how to price singles, packs, and combos.
Quick Summary
- Cost muffins by batch yield, not by ingredient list
- Mix-ins are a separate cost line and must be portioned
- Day-end waste should be priced into your target
- Coffee combos should protect muffin margin, not replace it
Why Muffin Costing Is Tricky
-
Mix-ins swing the cost fast. Blueberries and nuts cost more than batter.
-
Batter weight creep is constant. +0.2 oz per muffin adds 7-8% cost.
-
Bake loss is hidden. Stuck muffins and damaged tops happen daily.
-
Day-end waste is real. The last tray often gets discounted or tossed.
Target Food Cost % (U.S. Benchmarks)
| Muffin type | Typical target | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Standard (plain, banana) | 20-28% | Keep portion tight |
| Premium (berries, nuts) | 26-32% | Price add-ons directly |
| Combo with coffee | 22-30% | Use beverage margin as buffer |
If your prime cost is tight, set the base target at the low end.
Core Batch Formula
Cost per muffin = Total batch cost / Sellable muffins
Sellable muffins = Batch yield x (1 - loss rate)Use a separate waste rate for day-end leftovers.
Example Batch (12 Muffins)
Replace with your own prices.
| Item | Qty | Unit cost | Line cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flour | 1.5 lb | $0.70/lb | $1.05 |
| Sugar | 0.5 lb | $0.90/lb | $0.45 |
| Eggs | 2 ea | $0.25/egg | $0.50 |
| Butter/oil | 6 oz | $0.20/oz | $1.20 |
| Milk | 10 oz | $0.04/oz | $0.40 |
| Baking powder + salt | - | - | $0.15 |
| Base batch cost | - | - | $3.75 |
Yield: 12 muffins Loss rate: 5%
Sellable muffins = 12 x 0.95 = 11.4
Base cost per muffin = $3.75 / 11.4 = $0.33Mix-In Cost Table
Add mix-ins by portion weight.
| Mix-in | Portion | Unit cost | Add-on cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blueberries | 1.0 oz | $0.40/oz | $0.40 |
| Chocolate chips | 0.8 oz | $0.32/oz | $0.26 |
| Walnuts | 0.6 oz | $0.50/oz | $0.30 |
A $0.33 base muffin can become a $0.70 muffin fast.
Portion Control That Actually Works
- Set a batter weight per muffin (ex: 3.6 oz)
- Use a single scoop size
- Weigh the first 3 trays every shift
This removes 80% of cost drift.
Day-End Strategy
If you discount heavily at 4 p.m., that is part of your cost structure.
Options:
- Sell a 2-pack at a light discount
- Bundle with coffee
- Freeze for catering trays
Track the discount rate like a real cost line.
Combo Pricing With Coffee
Do not use coffee to hide bad muffin pricing.
Set muffin price first, then build a combo discount that still hits target.
Example:
- Muffin target price: $3.50
- Coffee price: $3.00
- Combo: $5.75 (8% discount)
You keep margin on both items.
U.S. Price Outlook (Why Repricing Matters)
The BLS reported food-away-from-home prices up 4.1% over the 12 months ending December 2025, while food-at-home rose 2.4%.
USDA projects food-away-from-home prices up 4.6% in 2026. If your muffin prices are static, your margin will shrink.
Sources:
- https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-price-index-2025-in-review.htm
- https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings/
Muffin Pricing Checklist
- Lock a batter weight per muffin
- Separate base cost from mix-in cost
- Price premium muffins 15-30% higher
- Track day-end waste weekly
- Review combo discounts quarterly
- Update recipes when butter or berries move
Do This Now
- Standardize all portion sizes in grams or ounces
- Calculate food cost for your top 5 menu items
- Set up a weekly price check for key ingredients
- Document your current yield percentages
- Create a pricing review calendar for the next 12 months
Related Guides
Want clean costing without spreadsheets? Start with KitchenCost.