Ice cream shops can look highly profitable on paper and still miss targets in real operations. The usual gap comes from three misses: theoretical overrun assumptions, flavor-level cost gaps, and packaging costs treated as negligible.
This guide gives a simple US operator method: scoop-level costing, one real worked example, and a weekly control loop you can keep during peak season.
Quick Summary
drawnVolume = baseVolume x (1 + overrunRate)baseCostPerOz = baseMixCost / drawnVolumeservingCost = (baseCostPerOz x portionOz) + mixIns + packagingmenuPrice = servingCost / targetCostRate
If your target is stable but actual waste rises, reprice or resize fast.
Why 2026 Requires Faster Ice Cream Repricing
The January 2026 CPI release was published on 2026-02-13.
USDA ERS Food Price Outlook and USDA AMS dairy reports continue to show ongoing movement in dairy-linked inputs.
For an ice cream shop, dairy drift compounds quickly because every scoop and shake depends on the same base. Waiting for quarterly updates can leave your highest-volume products below target for weeks.
Core Formula (US Frozen Dessert Operations)
drawnVolume = baseVolume x (1 + overrunRate)
baseCostPerOz = baseMixCost / drawnVolume
servingCost = (baseCostPerOz x portionOz) + mixIns + packaging
adjustedServingCost = servingCost / (1 - shrinkRate)
menuPrice = adjustedServingCost / targetCostRateUse actual portion tests from your scoop and soft-serve setup, not label assumptions.
Worked Example: Single Scoop in Phoenix, AZ
Assumptions:
- Base mix cost per gallon:
$18.50 - Base volume:
128 oz - Overrun:
35% - Portion size:
5 oz - Mix-in allowance:
$0.22 - Cone + spoon:
$0.17 - Shrink/waste allowance:
8% - Target cost rate:
20%
Step 1) Convert to drawn volume and ounce cost:
drawnVolume = 128 x (1 + 0.35) = 172.8 oz
baseCostPerOz = 18.50 / 172.8 = $0.107Step 2) Build serving cost:
servingCost = (0.107 x 5) + 0.22 + 0.17 = $0.93Step 3) Apply shrink allowance:
adjustedServingCost = 0.93 / (1 - 0.08) = $1.01Step 4) Build menu price:
menuPrice = 1.01 / 0.20 = $5.05That supports a practical lane around $4.99-$5.49 depending on traffic pattern and local competition.
Local Execution: Boardwalk Peak Shop vs Suburban Family Shop
| Context | Typical pressure point | First move |
|---|---|---|
| Boardwalk peak-season shop | Long lines and overscooping | Standardize scoop weight every shift change |
| Suburban family shop | Promo-heavy combo discounting | Separate combo contribution margin from single-scoop margin |
20-Minute Weekly Ice Cream Margin Loop
- Recheck dairy and top 5 mix-in purchase costs.
- Run portion tests on top 10 SKUs.
- Compare theoretical vs actual cost by format: scoop, sundae, shake.
- Fix one issue first: overscooping, promo design, or flavor pricing lane.
- Repeat weekly through peak season.
Related Guides
- How to Calculate Recipe Cost
- Food Cost Ratio Guide
- Menu Engineering Guide
- Prime Cost Guide: Food + Labor
KitchenCost helps frozen dessert teams track portion reality, ingredient drift, and menu-price decisions in one place.