Your supplier invoice arrives, and the number is up again.
You know prices need to move, but you also know your regulars are already watching every dollar.
That tension is where most small restaurants are living in 2026.
Quick Take
- In the latest U.S. CPI release (January 2026, published February 13, 2026), food away from home is up 4.0% year over year.
- NFIB’s January 2026 survey says a net 32% of small owners plan to raise prices in the next three months.
- Operators in community discussions are saying the same thing: cost pressure is real, but guests have a limit.
- The winning move is not one big increase. It is selective pricing, tighter menu design, and weekly tracking.
Why “Wait and See” Is Expensive
When prices stay flat while inputs move, your margin compresses quietly. By the time month-end P&L confirms it, you are already behind.
In the same January 2026 NFIB release:
- A net 26% of owners reported raising average selling prices.
- Price increases were still above historical norms.
- 31% reported job openings they could not fill, keeping labor pressure active.
For restaurant operators, this is the key reality: even if inflation headlines cool, operating costs do not freeze.
What Operators Are Actually Saying
A March 2025 thread in r/restaurantowners (“Are you raising your prices?”) captures the exact split:
- Some owners raised and saw little pushback.
- Others in working-class neighborhoods saw ticket resistance immediately.
- Several comments mention protein case-cost spikes and third-party delivery pressure.
That is why “raise everything 8%” fails. Different items, neighborhoods, and channels absorb price changes differently.
The 4-Step Playbook
1) Protect value anchors first
Pick 3 to 5 high-visibility items that define your price image. Keep increases small on those items (or hold price for one cycle).
Examples:
- house burger
- lunch combo
- best-selling bowl
If those jump too hard, guests assume the whole menu became expensive.
2) Raise where demand is least fragile
Prioritize increases on items that are:
- low volume but high labor
- low comparison shopping pressure
- already underpriced versus nearby alternatives
In plain terms: protect your “door openers,” fix your “margin leaks.”
3) Use structure, not just sticker price
Price is one lever. Offer structure is another. If direct increases are risky, use:
- bundle redesign
- side/add-on repricing
- portion standardization on weak-margin items
Operators in the same Reddit thread mentioned shifting share sizes and menu mix before blanket increases. That is usually the right order.
4) Track a 14-day impact scorecard
Do not judge after one weekend. Track by day for 14 days:
- guest count
- average check
- top-20 item mix
- gross margin dollars (not only margin %)
If guest count dips slightly but gross margin dollars improve and mix stays healthy, the change is still a win.
Worked Example: Selective Increase Beats Flat Increase
Assume one fast-casual store:
- Monthly sales: $85,000
- Current COGS: 31%
- Goal COGS: 29%
You need about a 2-point recovery.
Option A: flat +6% on every item
- High risk on traffic anchors
- More customer pushback
- Higher chance of transaction decline
Option B: selective strategy
- 0% to +2% on 5 anchor SKUs
- +6% to +10% on 12 low-elasticity SKUs
- +$1 to premium add-ons
- tighter portions on two labor-heavy dishes
The second model usually gets similar margin recovery with less guest shock.
The Customer Message That Works
Keep it short and specific.
Use:
- “We update prices selectively based on ingredient and operating costs.”
- “We are keeping our core staples as stable as possible.”
- “We are continuing to invest in quality and consistency.”
Avoid:
- long apology paragraphs
- blaming customers
- vague “market conditions” statements with no context
7-Day Execution Checklist
- Pull last 8 weeks of item sales and item-level margin
- Identify 3 to 5 anchor items to protect
- Build two scenarios: flat increase vs selective increase
- Choose the scenario with better projected gross margin dollars and lower traffic risk
- Update menus across dine-in, pickup, and delivery separately
- Brief FOH with one clear script
- Start 14-day scorecard on launch day
Related Guides
- US Restaurant Menu Pricing Guide
- US Menu Pricing Calculator
- Restaurant Labor Cost Percentage Guide
- US Restaurant Prime Cost Calculator
- Menu Engineering Matrix Guide
If you want item-level cost and pricing updates without spreadsheet sprawl, KitchenCost keeps recipe cost and target price in one workflow.
Sources (checked on 2026-02-14)
- BLS CPI News Release (January 2026, published February 13, 2026)
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey (February 11, 2026; January 2026 survey)
- National Restaurant Association Press Release (February 12, 2026)
- Reddit r/restaurantowners: “Are you raising your prices?”
- Reddit r/restaurantowners: “How to increase price and not lose customers?”