Coffee looks cheap. Margins can still disappear fast.
Why? Because the real costs are milk portions, espresso waste, and cup costs. A $0.10 drift per drink becomes thousands over a month.
This guide is a U.S.-focused coffee shop cost calculator. It uses public price benchmarks, portion math, and real drink examples.
Quick Summary
- Espresso weight and milk ounces decide your margin
- Price iced drinks separately (ice changes volume)
- Treat cups, lids, and napkins as fixed line items
- Update coffee and milk prices monthly
Why Coffee Margins Leak
- Milk over-pour is invisible.
- A 1 oz extra pour on 200 lattes is real money.
- Espresso waste compounds.
- Dial-in shots and remakes are not free.
- Iced drinks are mispriced.
- More ice should not mean lower price.
- Cup costs are ignored.
- Lids, sleeves, and straws can equal the espresso cost.
- Syrups and alt milks are underpriced.
- Each add-on must be priced as a true line item.
U.S. Price Benchmarks (Retail, City Average)
These BLS/FRED benchmarks are retail. Use them as directional signals, then plug in your supplier costs.
| Item | Latest U.S. city average | Unit cost | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee, ground roast | $7.131/lb (Dec 2025) | $0.016/gram | Espresso + drip base |
| Milk, fresh, whole | $4.215/gal (Dec 2025) | $0.033/oz | Primary latte cost |
| Sugar, white | $0.985/lb (Dec 2025) | $0.062/oz | Sweetener baseline |
Price Outlook (Plan for Repricing)
USDA ERS reports food-away-from-home prices rose 4.1% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025, with a 4.6% increase forecast for 2026. If you price once a year, your coffee margins erode quietly.
Espresso Cost Math (Simple Version)
Use a consistent espresso dose and calculate cost per shot.
Example:
Coffee price = $7.131/lb
1 lb = 453.6 grams
Cost per gram = 7.131 ÷ 453.6 = $0.0157
18g espresso dose = 18 × 0.0157 = $0.28
Double shot = $0.56If your dose changes, your cost changes. That is why weight matters.
Example 1: 12 oz Hot Latte
Portion assumptions:
- Espresso: 2 shots (36g)
- Milk: 8 oz
- Sweetener: 0.5 oz (example)
- Cup + lid + sleeve: $0.25 (example)
Cost Breakdown
| Item | Portion | Unit Cost | Line Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espresso | 36g | $0.016/g | $0.56 |
| Milk | 8 oz | $0.033/oz | $0.26 |
| Sweetener | 0.5 oz | $0.062/oz | $0.03 |
| Cup + lid | 1 set | $0.25 (example) | $0.25 |
| Total drink cost | $1.10 |
Price Targets
| Target Food Cost % | Menu Price |
|---|---|
| 25% | $4.40 |
| 28% | $3.93 |
| 30% | $3.67 |
If your market will not support $4–$5 lattes, reduce milk ounces before discounting price.
Example 2: 16 oz Iced Latte
Portion assumptions:
- Espresso: 2 shots (36g)
- Milk: 10 oz
- Ice: 6 oz (example)
- Sweetener: 0.75 oz (example)
- Cup + lid + straw: $0.28 (example)
Cost Breakdown
| Item | Portion | Unit Cost | Line Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espresso | 36g | $0.016/g | $0.56 |
| Milk | 10 oz | $0.033/oz | $0.33 |
| Sweetener | 0.75 oz | $0.062/oz | $0.05 |
| Cup + lid | 1 set | $0.28 (example) | $0.28 |
| Total drink cost | $1.22 |
Iced drinks should not be cheaper than hot drinks. They use more packaging and often more sweetener.
Batch Brew (Drip) Cost Check
If you batch brew, calculate cost per 8 oz cup. A simple rule of thumb is 1 lb of coffee yields 45–55 cups.
Example (50 cups):
$7.131 ÷ 50 cups = $0.14 per cup (coffee only)Then add cup + lid + sleeve. Drip can be your highest-margin drink if you price it correctly.
Alt Milk Pricing Rule
Alt milks are often 2–4× the cost of dairy. If you charge a $0.50 upcharge on a $0.70 cost increase, you are losing money.
Use this formula:
Alt milk upcharge = Added cost ÷ Target food cost %Portion Control Checklist
- Espresso dose is weighed, not eyeballed
- Milk ounces are marked on pitchers or jugs
- Iced drink recipes specify ice volume
- Syrup pumps are calibrated
- Cup cost is included in every drink cost
If you want stable margins, start here.
Do This Now: Weekly Coffee Shop Checklist
- Update espresso bean and milk prices from invoices
- Weigh milk portions for top 3 drinks
- Recalculate drink costs if any ingredient moved >5%
- Check cup and lid usage vs. sales
- Audit portion consistency during peak hours
Related Guides
- US Coffee Shop Pricing Guide
- US Menu Pricing Calculator
- Menu Price Rounding Guide
- Prime Cost Guide
- Food Cost Ratio Guide
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