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US Channel Mix Profit Model (2026): In-Store vs Pickup vs Delivery Math for Small Restaurants

A practical 2026 model for U.S. restaurants to set profitable sales mix targets across in-store, pickup, and delivery channels.

Updated Feb 23, 2026
channel mixrestaurant profitabilitypickup vs deliverymenu pricingsmall restaurantusa
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Same sales. Different channel mix. Completely different take-home profit.

That is a common 2026 reality for independent U.S. restaurants.

This guide helps you build a channel-mix target using contribution dollars, not gut feel.

Need Uber Eats assumptions behind the model?

Quick Summary

  • DoorDash and Uber Eats public U.S. pages show delivery fee tiers that are much higher than pickup fee structures
  • With higher delivery fee load, channel mix can change profit more than top-line sales growth
  • Use channel-level contribution math to set monthly mix targets
  • Keep delivery for reach, but expand pickup/direct share for stronger net margin

Why channel mix is now a core pricing decision

In January 2026 data (released in February), U.S. operators are still managing elevated cost pressure. At the same time, platform fee structures remain meaningfully different between delivery and pickup.

So the key decision is no longer only “how much did we sell?” It is “where did we sell it?”

Build contribution per order by channel

Use this baseline:

Contribution per order =
  Net order revenue
  - food cost
  - labor allocation
  - platform/payment fees
  - packaging/handling

Run it for each channel:

  • in-store
  • pickup
  • delivery marketplace

Then multiply by order counts to get contribution dollars by channel.

Worked example

Assume monthly orders:

  • In-store: 2,200 orders
  • Pickup: 1,000 orders
  • Delivery: 1,600 orders

Contribution per order:

  • In-store: $8.40
  • Pickup: $7.10
  • Delivery: $4.30

Channel contribution dollars:

In-store: 2,200 x 8.40 = $18,480
Pickup:   1,000 x 7.10 = $7,100
Delivery: 1,600 x 4.30 = $6,880
Total = $32,460

If 200 delivery orders shift to pickup (same average check assumption):

Pickup gain:   200 x 7.10 = +$1,420
Delivery loss: 200 x 4.30 = -$860
Net monthly gain: +$560

No extra top-line sales required. Just better channel composition.

Set a practical target mix

Start with a 90-day target like:

  • In-store: stable
  • Pickup: +3 to +8 points
  • Delivery: -3 to -8 points (without collapsing visibility)

Then support with tactics:

  • pickup-first bundles
  • pickup-ready timing on menu pages
  • selective delivery pricing and minimums

Manager scorecard (weekly)

  • orders by channel
  • average check by channel
  • contribution per order by channel
  • total contribution dollars by channel
  • repeat rate for pickup and direct customers

If delivery share rises but contribution dollars lag, pricing or promo policy needs correction.

Common mistakes

  1. Tracking only order volume, not contribution
  2. One pricing logic across all channels
  3. Ignoring pickup conversion opportunities
  4. Heavy delivery promos without channel-level profitability review

Checklist

  • Channel-level contribution model built
  • Monthly target mix defined
  • Pickup conversion offers launched
  • Delivery minimum/pricing reviewed
  • Weekly channel contribution dashboard live

Sources (checked on 2026-02-14)

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does channel mix matter more than total sales?

Because each channel has a different cost structure. Two stores with the same sales can have very different profit outcomes depending on in-store, pickup, and delivery mix.

What is a practical way to set channel targets?

Calculate contribution per order by channel, then set target mix based on contribution dollars rather than order count alone.

Should I reduce delivery exposure completely?

Usually no. Delivery can still drive discovery, but many operators improve profitability by growing pickup and direct channels while maintaining selective delivery presence.

How often should I review channel mix targets?

Monthly at minimum, with weekly checks during major pricing or promo changes.

What KPI should I put on the manager dashboard?

Contribution dollars by channel and contribution per order by channel are the most actionable starting metrics.

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