UK Cafe Cash Runway Checklist (2026): 8-Week Weekly Control for Owner-Operators

Busy service does not guarantee safe cash. In small restaurants, one stale payroll assumption can break a month.

If your model still uses last year’s wage logic, this is the week to reset it.

Quick Summary

• Run an 8-week cash-flow model, not month-end guesswork.
• Update labor assumptions before April 2026 wage changes hit payroll.
• Track tax and payroll cash separately from operating cash.
• Use stop rules early instead of emergency discounting.

Why This Matters in the UK Right Now

As of the December 2025 ONS release (published 15 January 2026):

• CPI annual rate: 3.0%
• Restaurants and hotels annual inflation: 3.8%

From 1 April 2026, the UK minimum wage table moves again. National Living Wage (age 21 and over) is GBP 12.71 per hour.

From 6 April 2026, employer NIC settings for 2026-27 include a 15% Class 1 secondary rate with updated thresholds.

For owner-operators, that means pricing and cash planning must include loaded payroll, not wage headline only.

The Core 8-Week Formula

closingCash = openingCash + cashIn - cashOut

cashOut = payrollLoaded + suppliers + rent + utilities + debt + taxReserve + otherFixed

Keep this weekly. If you only check monthly, corrective actions arrive too late.

Worked Example (Week 1)

Assumptions:

• Opening cash: GBP 22,400
• Cash in (net settlements): GBP 16,950
• Payroll (loaded): GBP 6,780
• Suppliers: GBP 4,920
• Rent and utilities: GBP 2,460
• Debt service: GBP 620
• Tax reserve transfer: GBP 900
• Other fixed: GBP 1,150

closingCash = 22,400 + 16,950 - (6,780 + 4,920 + 2,460 + 620 + 900 + 1,150)
            = 22,400 + 16,950 - 16,830
            = GBP 22,520

Positive week, but barely flat. That is a warning sign, not a win.

Wage-Change Impact Line (Add This Row)

weeklyWageUplift = (newRate - oldRate) x affectedHours

Example:

• Old modeled rate: GBP 11.44
• New modeled rate: GBP 12.71
• Affected weekly hours: 260

weeklyWageUplift = (12.71 - 11.44) x 260 = GBP 330.20

If you do not recover that in pricing, mix, or productivity, your 8-week runway shrinks automatically.

30-Minute Weekly Cash Routine

1. Update actual settlements by channel.
2. Post payroll as loaded cost, not gross wage only.
3. Transfer tax reserve first.
4. Compare planned vs actual closing cash.
5. Trigger stop rule if closing cash is under target.

Stop Rules You Can Use

• Two consecutive weeks below minimum cash floor.
• Supplier terms stretched beyond agreed cycle.
• Payroll plus supplier outflow exceeds 80% of weekly cash in for 2 weeks.

When a stop rule triggers, cut leakage first: discount abuse, low-margin modifiers, and unprofitable dayparts.

Common Mistakes

1. Using profit reports as cash-flow reports.
2. Ignoring payroll loading and NI effects in weekly planning.
3. Waiting for month-end to react.
4. Using one blended food-cost assumption across all channels.

Related Guides

• UK Restaurant Menu Pricing Guide
• UK Restaurant Labour Cost Calculator
• UK Restaurant Prime Cost Calculator
• Menu Price Review Checklist
• Break-Even Sales Calculator

KitchenCost helps you recost recipes and menu floors quickly, so your weekly cash model uses current numbers.

Try KitchenCost.

Sources (checked on 2026-02-14)

• ONS - Consumer price inflation, UK: December 2025
• GOV.UK - Minimum wage rates for 2026 (from 1 April 2026)
• GOV.UK - Rates and thresholds for employers 2026 to 2027
• Reddit: r/UKSmallBusiness - rising costs and price-increase concerns