You can be slammed on Friday night and still end the week with no cash. That is the most common owner complaint right now, and it is usually a math problem, not a demand problem.
Quick Summary
- U.S. food-away-from-home CPI was +4.0% year over year in the January 2026 release.
- The Census/FRED food services sales series still showed large topline numbers, but month-to-month movement stayed choppy.
- In the Fed Small Business Credit Survey, owners reported rising operating costs and uneven cash flow at the same time.
- Fixes start with one weekly audit: sales, COGS, labor, channel fees, and fixed-cost run rate.
What the 2026 Data Says
Here is the pressure stack U.S. operators are dealing with:
- BLS CPI (released February 13, 2026): food away from home +4.0% YoY, +0.1% month over month.
- FRED / Census RSFSDP series: December 2025 was 100,229 (millions, seasonally adjusted), near November 2025 (100,374).
- Fed Small Business Credit Survey (2025 report):
- 56% cited rising costs of goods/services as a financial challenge.
- 37% cited operating expenses.
- 35% cited uneven cash flow.
- 34% cited weaker sales.
- 77% said operating expenses increased year over year.
Translation: many stores are carrying higher cost pressure even when tickets keep coming in.
Why “Busy” Still Feels Broke
Most leaks show up in one of these places:
- Low-margin items driving high volume
- Labor hours added to chase peaks that do not cover loaded labor cost
- Delivery/promo/payment fees treated as overhead, not item cost
- Waste, remakes, and discounting not tied back to menu pricing
If you only watch total sales, you miss all four.
15-Minute Sunday Margin Audit
Pull these five numbers every week:
| Line | What to pull | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Net sales (before sales tax) | Your real denominator |
| 2 | COGS (food + beverage + packaging) | Variable cost pressure |
| 3 | Labor (wages + employer on-costs) | The other fast-moving cost block |
| 4 | Channel fees (marketplace + payment + promo) | Hidden margin leak |
| 5 | Fixed-cost run rate (weekly) | Cash survival threshold |
Then run:
primeCostPercent = (COGS + Labor) / NetSales
afterChannelPercent = (NetSales - COGS - Labor - ChannelFees) / NetSales
cashResultBeforeFixed = NetSales - COGS - Labor - ChannelFees
cashResultAfterFixed = cashResultBeforeFixed - FixedCostsDo this weekly, same day, same format.
One-Week Example
Assume this week:
- Net sales: $24,500
- COGS: $8,580
- Labor: $8,960
- Channel fees: $2,210
- Fixed costs (weekly run rate): $5,100
Math:
- Prime cost = ($8,580 + $8,960) / $24,500 = 71.6%
- After-channel dollars = $24,500 - $8,580 - $8,960 - $2,210 = $4,750
- After fixed costs = $4,750 - $5,100 = -$350
This store can feel busy every night and still lose cash every week.
7-Day Fixes When You See a Leak
- Reprice or redesign top-10 high-volume, low-contribution items first.
- Stop blanket discounts and keep only offers that lift ticket size.
- Separate dine-in, pickup, and marketplace margin tracking.
- Cap low-margin third-party promos until contribution improves.
- Tighten prep and pars on items with frequent waste/remakes.
- Rebuild staffing around half-hour demand windows, not averages.
- Recheck the same five lines next week and compare deltas.
What Owners Keep Saying in Community Threads
Across owner forums, the same pattern repeats:
- “Sales are not dead, but bills keep catching up.”
- “Overhead and payroll pressure make volume feel pointless.”
- “Guests think owners are rich while operators report very thin margins.”
Use that as a signal to manage by contribution and cash, not by gross sales alone.
Related Guides
- US Restaurant Prime Cost Calculator
- US Restaurant Labor Cost Calculator
- US Menu Pricing Calculator
- Break-Even Sales Calculator
Sources (checked on 2026-02-14)
- BLS CPI News Release (January 2026, released 2026-02-13)
- FRED: Food Services and Drinking Places (RSFSDP)
- Federal Reserve: 2025 Report on Employer Firms
- Reddit - r/restaurateur: “Struggling its not just me right?”
- Reddit - r/restaurantowners: “People think Restaurant owners are rich”
KitchenCost helps you run this weekly audit from recipe cost to menu contribution without rebuilding a spreadsheet every weekend.