US Delivery Promo ROI Calculator (2026): Run Discounts Without Killing Margin

Promotions can boost order count and still hurt your cash.

That is the trap many small operators are facing in 2026: traffic is uneven, costs are sticky, and discounting feels like the fastest lever.

This guide gives you the math to test promos before they drain margin.

Quick Summary

• In January 2026 data (released February 2026), small-business pricing pressure is still elevated
• Community discussions show the same concern: promos can drive volume but leave weak net payout
• Use a break-even lift formula before launching any discount
• Run short tests with stop rules tied to contribution dollars

Why promo discipline matters now

Three live signals:

• NFIB January 2026 survey: net 32% of owners plan to raise prices in the next 3 months
• BLS January 2026 CPI release: food away from home remains above headline CPI
• NRA 2026 release: a large share of operators reported not being profitable in 2025

In this environment, discounting without math is expensive.

The promo ROI formula

Step 1: contribution per non-promo order

Base contribution = Selling price - Total variable cost

Step 2: contribution per promo order

Promo contribution = (Selling price - Discount - Additional promo spend) - Total variable cost

Step 3: incremental orders needed to break even

Required incremental orders =
  Total promo spend
  / (Promo contribution per order)

If promo contribution is near zero or negative, stop. Higher order count will not fix it.

Worked example

Assumptions:

• Average selling price: $19.00
• Total variable cost (food + packaging + fees): $12.40
• Base contribution: $6.60
• Promo offer: $3 off
• Additional paid placement cost per order (estimated): $1.00

Promo contribution:

($19.00 - $3.00 - $1.00) - $12.40 = $2.60

If campaign spend is $520:

$520 / $2.60 = 200 incremental orders needed

If you cannot realistically generate 200 incremental orders in the test window, the offer should be redesigned.

4 rules that protect margin

1. Never launch promos without a minimum order threshold
2. Use fixed-dollar discounts first for downside control
3. Exclude low-margin items from promo eligibility
4. Set stop rules before launch (for example: pause if promo contribution < $2/order)

14-day scorecard

Track daily:

• promo orders
• non-promo orders
• average check by segment
• contribution dollars by segment
• repeat rate after promo

The goal is not one-time volume. The goal is profitable repeat behavior.

Community signal

Owner conversations repeatedly highlight this pattern:

• “Sales were up, but money left after fees and discounts was thin”
• “Low-ticket promo orders looked good in volume, weak in payout”

That pattern usually means contribution math was skipped.

Checklist

• Promo contribution formula completed before launch
• Minimum order threshold enabled
• Exclusion list for weak-margin SKUs set
• 7-14 day stop rules defined
• Incremental contribution reviewed weekly

Related Guides

• US Profitable Minimum Order Amount Calculator (2026)
• US Pickup-First Pricing Playbook (2026)
• US Delivery App Pricing Guide
• US Menu Price Increase Playbook (2026)

Sources (checked on 2026-02-14)

• NFIB press release (Jan 2026 survey, published Feb 11, 2026)
• BLS CPI (Jan 2026 release, published Feb 13, 2026)
• National Restaurant Association press release (Feb 12, 2026)
• DoorDash Merchant Products
• Reddit - r/restaurantowners: Doordash, if they can absorb prices then why don’t they?
• Reddit - r/restaurantowners: End of the month!