Coffee operators are dealing with a weird mix right now: one core input is running hot, another looks lower year over year but jumps month to month.
That is how owners end up asking, “Are we overpricing, or already behind?”
This guide gives you a weekly, margin-first repricing routine.
Quick Summary
- January 2026 CPI data shows roasted coffee +18.3% YoY
- Eggs are -34.2% YoY but +13.8% month to month in the same release
- USDA still projects food-away-from-home +4.6% in 2026
- Use weekly ingredient triggers, not quarterly guesswork
The 2026 Signals to Watch
From the BLS CPI release for January 2026 (published February 13, 2026):
- Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials: +4.4% YoY
- Roasted coffee: +18.3% YoY
- Eggs: -34.2% YoY, but +13.8% month over month
From USDA ERS January 2026 outlook:
- Food away from home forecast midpoint: +4.6% in 2026
- Sugar and sweets forecast midpoint: +6.7%
- Nonalcoholic beverages forecast midpoint: +4.2%
For coffee shops and bakeries, that combination means cost pressure is still active even when one line item briefly cools.
Community Signal: Why Owners Feel Stuck
In r/Baking and r/smallbusiness pricing threads, the same concern keeps showing up:
- “My calculated price feels too high.”
- “If I keep old prices, margin disappears.”
That is not just mindset. It is the result of mixed commodity signals and delayed menu updates.
Weekly Repricing Board (Green / Yellow / Red)
Track your top ingredients by cost share and movement.
- Green: under 3% movement, monitor
- Yellow: 3-5% movement, recheck top SKUs
- Red: above 5% movement, immediate recost and price review
Prioritize by impact: high cost-share ingredients in high-volume items go first.
Fast Formula for Item Repricing
new_item_cost =
old_item_cost + sum(old_ingredient_line_cost x ingredient_change_pct)Then:
target_price = new_item_cost / target_food_cost_pctAlways protect divide-by-zero in your sheet or tool.
Worked Example: Latte + Pastry Combo
Assume current combo cost is $3.20:
- coffee component:
$0.90 - sugar component:
$0.25 - egg-linked pastry component:
$0.40 - all other cost lines:
$1.65
Apply current changes:
- coffee
+18.3%->+0.16 - sugar
+6.7%->+0.02 - egg line
+13.8%(short-term jump) ->+0.06
New combo cost:
3.20 + 0.16 + 0.02 + 0.06 = $3.44If target food cost is 30%:
target_price = 3.44 / 0.30 = $11.47Rounded action price is around $11.49.
What to Change First (Without Guest Shock)
- Protect one or two anchor items (your price-image items)
- Reprice high-cost specialty drinks and premium add-ons first
- Rebuild weak-margin combos before touching entry-level staples
Small, targeted moves usually beat one large menu-wide jump.
15-Minute Monday Routine
- Update last week’s coffee, dairy, egg, sugar invoices
- Flag yellow/red movements by ingredient
- Recost top 10 SKUs only
- Reprice items below margin floor
- Review guest feedback and mix by Friday
Related Guides
- US Coffee Shop Cost Guide
- US Coffee Shop Pricing Guide
- US Food Cost Calculator
- US Menu Pricing Calculator
- US Menu Price Increase Notice Template (2026)
KitchenCost helps you recost recipes quickly so ingredient volatility turns into controlled weekly updates, not last-minute pricing panic.