Most owners already track cash. The problem is they do not track decision triggers.
When pressure rises, teams react late because the sheet shows numbers but no action rules.
Quick Summary
- Build one 13-week forecast with 3 trigger bands.
- Add VAT and PAYE reserve transfers as fixed weekly lines.
- Use a two-week cash coverage ratio for early warnings.
- Apply one action per trigger level, not five changes at once.
Why this matters in 2026
ONS (published 21 January 2026, Dec 2025 data) reported:
- CPIH annual rate:
3.5% - CPI annual rate:
3.0%
Meanwhile, payroll assumptions moved for 2026:
- National Living Wage (21+) is
£12.21from1 April 2026 - Employer secondary Class 1 NI table shows
15%for 2026 to 2027
So the margin buffer many operators used in 2025 can disappear quickly in 2026 if cash controls stay unchanged.
The trigger model
twoWeekCoverageRatio = projectedCashInNext2Weeks / projectedCashOutNext2WeeksCoverage bands:
- Green:
>= 1.20 - Amber:
1.00 to 1.19 - Red:
< 1.00
Suggested actions:
- Green: maintain plan
- Amber: tighten discount/promo leakage and pause discretionary spend
- Red: freeze discretionary owner draw, adjust roster, reprice weak-contribution items
VAT + PAYE reserve lines (fixed)
weeklyVATReserve = expectedQuarterlyVAT / 13
weeklyPAYEReserve = expectedMonthlyPAYE / 4.33Use these as non-negotiable outflow lines in your 13-week sheet.
Worked example
Assume next two weeks:
- projected cash in:
£45,600 - projected cash out (including VAT/PAYE reserves):
£42,900
twoWeekCoverageRatio = 45,600 / 42,900 = 1.06Status: Amber. You are not in crisis, but you should run one protection action this week.
If forecast slips to:
- cash in:
£40,900 - cash out:
£42,900
twoWeekCoverageRatio = 40,900 / 42,900 = 0.95Status: Red. Predefined red actions should execute immediately.
15-minute Monday routine
- Replace forecast with last-week actuals
- Recompute 13-week cash line and two-week coverage
- Confirm VAT reserve against next HMRC deadline
- Confirm PAYE reserve against next monthly deadline
- Execute one action based on current trigger band
Common mistakes
- Reviewing cash monthly only
- Treating VAT/PAYE reserve as optional outflow
- Running trigger rules but not predefining actions
- Changing too many variables at once under pressure
Bottom line
A forecast without trigger rules is only a report. A forecast with trigger rules is an operating system.
For small UK restaurants in 2026, that difference protects both cash and decision quality.
Related Guides
- UK Small Restaurant Cash Flow Template (2026)
- UK VAT + PAYE Cash Reserve Calendar (2026)
- UK National Living Wage Menu Pricing Guide (2026)
KitchenCost helps owner-operators keep recipe economics and weekly cash controls in one workflow.